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Hat Beliefs

March 10, 2022 By George Hutton Last update: March 10, 2022

Lucky Boy

https://loopvids.s3.amazonaws.com/2022/22Mar10_Post.mp4

There’s a famous story about the farmer and his three sons.
 
One son finds a horse.
 
His neighbors say he’s lucky.
 
The farmer says maybe.
 
Then his son breaks his leg while trying to tame the horse.
 
The neighbors say he’s unlucky.
 
The farmer says maybe.
 
Then the country goes to war.
 
They collect all able bodied men.
 
They lose the war and everybody dies.
 
Except the son with the broken leg.
 
His neighbors, who don’t have any sons to run their farms, say he’s lucky.
 
The farmer, once gain, says maybe.
 
This is an example of how time itself can reframe events.
 
Time and the unpredictable unfolding of reality.
 
There are two basic versions of history.
 

Super Genius?

One is a bunch of dudes get together and come up with a plan.
 
Then everybody thinks it’s a great idea and put the plan in action.
 
The opposite is that random stuff just keeps happening.
 
And the dudes in charge take credit.
 
A perfect example of the second theory is the JFK hat theory.
 
Once upon a time, all American dudes wore hats.
 
Then JFK became president and didn’t wear a hat.
 
So nobody wore a hat.
 
The theory is the JFK, by example, destroyed the hat wearing trend.
 
That’s one theory.
 
The other theory is that hats and other types of clothing (gloves, etc.) were ALREADY in decline.
 
Only nobody noticed it.
 
Then JFK shows up and doesn’t wear a hat.
 
Then everybody starts to notice all the other dudes who aren’t wearing hats.
 

Cause Or Effect?

Since they didn’t see this before JFK showed up, this creates the most ancient logical fallacy.
 
“Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc.”
 
After this, therefore because of this.
 
But did JFK REALLY cause people to stop wearing hats?
 
Or did he just recalibrate everybody’s confirmation bias?
 
To see the people who were already not wearing hats.
 
Was JFK a trend SETTER or a trend FOLLOWER?
 
Human brains are expensive.
 
The most expensive organ in the body, gram for gram.
 
So it has evolved a ton of energy saving features.
 
One is assuming causation when there is merely correlation.
 
Or giving up rational thinking when it’s easier to follow authority and social proof.
 
No caveman would ever had survived if he demanded a logical discussion before taking any kind of action.
 
Another famous dude is Socrates.
 
He was famous for plenty of things, least of which getting murdered by the state for not worshipping the right gods.
 
But also for proving NOBODY had any “beliefs” that were true.
 
Whatever people THOUGHT was true, he could prove it wasn’t.
 

Socratic Game

Now, this is NOT a recommended party trick.
 
But it’s a good idea.
 
All those beliefs in your brain CANNOT be true.
 
Even though you may think they are.
 
But since NO BELIEFS are true, why not ditch the ones that don’t help you?
 
And create some that will?
 
Learn How:
 

Belief Change

 
 

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Filed Under: Adult Mindset, Basic Economics, Beliefs, Communication Skills Tagged With: Belief Change, Beliefs, Cause, Correlation, Farmer's Sons, Hats, JFK, Logical Fallacy, Metaphor, Socrates

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