Up And Down
I used to love cycling.
I had a well calibrated loop around where I used to live, up and down the biggest hills I could find.
I actually enjoyed going up long hills, since I could look forward to going back down.
Potential Dream Job
I used to know this guy who had an awesome job.
It wasn’t quite a government job, but it was pretty close.
He got paid a lot, he didn’t have to do much, and it was nearly impossible to get fired, but he hated it because of something he hadn’t anticipated.
Super Genius
There is this math genius who was heavily recruited by a lot of large wall street companies when he got his PhD.
He was a child prodigy, and got his PhD when he was only sixteen.
And although he was a multimillionaire by the time he was in his mid twenties, due to the advanced trading algorithms he’d created, he absolutely hated his job.
History Is Harsh
From an individual standpoint, history can be pretty harsh.
If you chose a random human before the industrial revolution, there would be a ninety percent chance you’d end up a peasant.
Your time wouldn’t be yours.
Your land wouldn’t be used.
And if you didn’t produce what the rulers demanded, you’d be killed.
90% Dirt Farmer
For most of history, you stayed in the social class where you were born.
But if you view history their the frame of human society as a singular organism, things look much different.
As an organism, humanity has grown much larger and much more complex.
Integral to this is the idea of Malthusian Cycles.
Societies are formed, grow in complexity, productivity and energy use.
Up And Down
But then something happens and they find themselves no longer being able to produce the energy needs.
When this happens, there is a sudden decrease in population.
Once things settle down, and the population starts to grow again, the subsequent civilizations are much more complex and wealth.
Many historians believe that one of critical factors that eventually led to the Industrial Revolution was the Black Death.
Black Debt
Some have drawn parallels between Malthusian cycles and the business cycle.
Economic boom turn into busts when too much credit is used to produce goods and services that nobody wants.
When it crashes, companies go out of business and plenty of people become unemployed.
Economists say the depth if the bust is related to the height of the boom.
And booms are a necessarily cleansing event that clears the business landscape of under performing businesses and bad debt.
Only then can the economy bounce back.
Horse Racing Statistics
He developed an advanced statistical algorithm and was uncannily accurate when predicting future events.
It was similar to the trading algorithms he developed for wall street trading companies, who continuously enjoy 90% winning trades.
He applied this to the racetrack.
Now he spends his time traveling around the world, staying in luxury hotels near the most popular racetracks in the world.
Back Stabbing Ninjas
He didn’t anticipate all the office politics.
Apparently, plenty of others wanted this government-like job for the same reasons he did.
So, after several years, he engineered a situation where he got fired, but retained his salary and benefits in perpetuity.
Helter Skelter
Going up is enjoyable mainly because you can look forward to going down.
An interesting way to continuously transform potential energy into kinetic energy.
And then transferring kinetic energy back into potential energy.
Of course, if you’re on a long bike ride where you are unfamiliar territory, and you start going down and unexpected hill, this is generally bad news.
This means there is a big hill in your future that you’ll need a lot of energy to climb.
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