Lucky Accountaint
Once upon a time there was a very introverted accountant. He worked for very large firm. He was very good at his job so he made a lot of money. One summer they had a picnic a company picnic and this introverted accountant won a raffle at the picnic.
The prize for the raffle was a trip on a cruise and he felt obligated to go on this cruise because his boss told him he had to go. But he was introverted so he wasn’t really sure what he was going to do on the cruise.
The first two days of the cruise he spent in his cabin too scared to go up on deck and mingle with the other people. Then he realized that these were people that he would never see again, so he decided to try and see what happened.
He went up on deck and he kept telling himself that none of these people will ever see him again. He actually started to mingle but then out of nowhere a huge storm hit.
The Perfect Storm
Massive black clouds, thunderbolts, huge waves came out of nowhere. The boat started rocking back and forth. It was terrifying. So this guy grabbed on to the nearest thing he could find which was the boat’s anchor.
When humans are little babies we have a very simple strategy that helps us survive. When we are happy we scream. When we are sad and scared or angry we scream.
If we are happy we want to share our happiness so we scream until somebody comes and shares our happiness. When we are feeling sad or lonely or angry or afraid we scream until someone comes and fixes our problems.
Somebody Fix Me!
It’s a very simple strategy and babies are programmed with the strategy as are the genetic caretakers of the babies. When the babies feel fear or happiness they scream and when the genetic caretakers of babies hear their screams they feel compelled to come and take care of the baby.
All You Can Eat
When I was younger I had this fantastic skill that I could eat anything I wanted and not even worry about gaining weight. If I look at pictures of myself when I was back in high school, I’m amazed how skinny I was.
I did participate in a couple of sports but I was just I was amazed. I mean I didn’t really notice this until I couldn’t do any longer, but when I was in high school I can eat anything all day long and never even think about gaining weight. But then the older I got the less I could do it.
Pretty soon I had sort of face my own mortality so to speak.
Black Gold
One of the biggest reasons for the industrial revolution is very, very, simple. It can be overly complex when you try to go back and look at all the factors that went into the all the discoveries.
Knowledge of economic beliefs and systems and in money monetary systems and engineering systems and manufacturing systems and multistage manufacturing systems.
Texas Tea
But fundamentally the main reason, the main driving force behind the industrial revolution was the discovery of fossil fuels.
Any economy is very, very, simple, and is really the sum total of the behavior and activities of every single person in the economy. There’s really only two things that make an economy grow or two things that make an economy shrink.
If you have less people you have less of an economy. If you have less energy use per person and that economy is going to be smaller as well. If you have an economy where you are continuously adding people, that economy is going to be growing.
If you have an economy that has each individual person using more energy per person per year that economy is going be growing as well. That is essentially what happened at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.
A sudden explosion in people and there was a sudden explosion in energy use per person because of the discovery of fossil fuels.
Debt And Interest Rates
One thing that makes perfect sense if you have a rapidly growing economy is the idea of debt. That is essentially taking money from the future and using that future money today.
If you have a very good idea that the future economy is going to be be a lot larger than the present economy, then any money you take from that future economy will be a lot bigger, proportionally, in today’s economy.
Back To The Future
It’s almost like financial time travel. If you have a good idea of how the economy is going to grow and you use that money to grow bigger into the future you can sometimes come up with situations, you can frequently come up with situations in early growth stage of the economy.
You can take a certain amount of money from the future, bring it into the present, and then use that money to build some type of economic endeavor so you can grow that money even quicker.
Then when you get to the future, the original money that you talking out is bigger so you can give it back and you have a little bit extra.
Ticking Debt Bomb
But the opposite happens when the economy is shrinking. If you have a good idea that the economy is going be smaller in 10 years, then you need to do the opposite.
You need to save money today, so when the economy is smaller in 10 or 20 years you have extra money when all the money is shrinking and all the economic activity is shrinking.
If you measure the growth all the various things that people use to measure the growth of economies around the world, there’s pretty much a general consensus that we have peaked out.
All The Way Down
We’ve topped out. There’s a lot of it if you look at the basic data from all of the economies of the world since the Industrial Revolution, the growth has more or less stopped.
Starting today, starting in the next 10 15 20 years the amount of people will start to decrease. The amount of energy use per person is going to decrease. So by all accounts and measures were more or less at the very top of the economy.
It’s all going to go downhill from here. The biggest problem with this is is we are doing the exact opposite today what we should be doing. There’s so much information that indicates the economy is going to be shrinking in the future.
Winter Is Coming
We should, all of us, individuals and governments, should be saving money as much as possible. But we’ve unfortunately created this Frankenstein economy where we have to keep borrowing money just to pay off the interest on the debt.
We already borrowed so much money on the way up that we need to borrow money just to pay the money back.
Not even coming close to being able the make it back in the future and paying it back. So we’re so tightly painted into a corner now that we can’t even stop borrowing money.
If we stop borrowing money the economy will explode, but the economy is going to be shrinking. It’s only a matter of time before something breaks. The future, 10-20 years is going to be horrific.
No Way Out
There is no mathematical solution to what the situation is today. Very few people are going to even acknowledge that, most especially politicians, who get elected by promising that everything is going to be fine.
Of course, once I went to college and then I started working at a company I had to realize that I could no longer eat whatever I wanted.
Why Did My Pants Shrink?
While that was a fantastic strategy when I was young, I could not use that strategy very long for much longer. Unfortunately, most adults who are faced with this, have a big problem.
Most people in modern country still are very overweight which is a blatant indicator that we have trouble shifting our strategies as we get older.
If you keep relying on the strategy that you used as a adolescent it’s going to cause a lot of problems. Heart disease or high blood pressure or metabolic syndrome, or cancer because of eating all of these processed foods. That’s going to cause all kinds of problems.
It’s My Human Right!
Of course every baby has to grow up into a human and realize that crying for other people to come and fix the problem is not an adequate strategy. If you have a society where 10% of the people are criers and 90% of the people are fixers, then this is going to work very well.
Assuming criers eventually turn into fixers. But if you have an economy where the majority of people are criers and there’s very few fixers, the end is not far.
Short Term Strategy
The guy, the introverted accountant hung onto the anchor long enough. The storm passed, the skies cleared the seas became calm. The captain dropped the anchor.
Unfortunately, the accountant was still hanging on tightly to the anchor because he had been so terrified during the storm. He more or less hardwired that strategy into his brain of hanging onto the anchor.
Long Term Death
The deeper the anchor sank into the ocean the more terrified he got and the more tightly he hung onto that anchor.
Of course he finally died because he couldn’t update his strategy. Because he couldn’t update his strategy he died.
Terrified and alone.
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