Truth Is Impossible
Studying history objectively is impossible.
Everybody has filters and biases.
It’s widely known that people who study history bring their unconscious biases with them.
It’s kind of like how we choose to read from certain news sources that validate our confirmation bias.
Few Venture Outside
In order to get a real appreciation to what is going on, you need to first be consciously aware of your confirmation bias.
Then purposely read an equal amount of news from both inside and outside of your confirmation basis.
This requires a lot of reading and a lot of conscious effort, something most people are absolutely unwilling to do.
Taking this approach to studying history is much, much harder.
Filter For Validation
Just like any reporter has a collection of unconscious biases driving their reporting, so do historians.
One interesting model from which to study the middle ages is a constant struggle for power.
From the collapse of the Roman Empire to the Italian Renaissance, there was a very large power vacuum.
Never Ending Power Struggles
During that time, various groups maintained various amounts of power for various reasons.
They say that history doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes.
An interesting thing that happened in the past, that may very well happen again in the near future is what was demonstrated in the last few minutes of the movie, Gangs of New York.
Everything was falling apart, there was a huge amount of civil unrest, and everybody was more or less fighting with and killing everybody else.
Circles and Lines
There are two ways to look at history.
One is linear, one is circular.
Linear history is the history of technology and energy use.
Circular history is the history of human behavior and the rise and fall of human societies.
A very interesting theory is that of generational archetypes.
Fourth Turning Theory
This theory states that each generation of twenty years or so has a certain type of archetype.
And since there are four basic archetypes, this long cycle repeats every 80 years or so.
This is also where they get the idea for generational names like baby boomers, generation X, millenials and generation Z.
If you trace back Western society as far back as you can, you’ll see that every 80 years or so, the cycle resets.
Resetting Cycles Are Dangerous
Every time the cycle resets, it’s usually accompanied by wars and a change in either political or a monetary system.
This cycle that the United States is in changed last after World War II.
At the end of World War II, a new global political system was created.
A new global monetary system based on the dollar was created.
Eighty years after that 2025.
We Are Due
Which means there is a very high probability that by 2025, there will have been a major shift in the political order and the monetary system.
Two cycles ago was the civil war, which significantly changed the political structure of the united states, and changed the monetary system of the United States.
If the dollar does not survive past 2025, that will represent a very significant shift in the American Economy.
The end of World War II will be remembered thousands of years into the future.
Resonate For Ages
The U.S. Civil War will also be remembered thousands of years into the future.
These cycles also suggest that within the next five years, there will be a significant event that will be catastrophic to the current political and financial system.
A catastrophic event that will be remembered for thousands of years.
Potentially on the same category of the collapse of the Roman Empire.
Rhyming History
Many people, including historians and economists, have found many, many similarities between conditions now, and conditions at the end of the Roman Empire.
They say may you live in interesting times.
And it’s pretty clear that we are living in interesting times.
Gangs Of New York Ending
White people were killing black people.
Poor people were killing rich people.
People born in America were killing immigrants.
Men were killing women.
Everything Falls Apart
Public servants were leveraging the chaos to steal as much as they could from citizens.
And while all this was happening, the military was dropping bombs on all the fighting, trying to stop it.
One of the things that kicked off this massive civil unrest, both historically, and in the movie, was that if you were rich enough, you could buy your way out of the Civil War.
Which meant poor people were sent to fight, but rich people didn’t have to.
And Here We Are Again
History does not repeat, but it certainly rhymes.
The nobles were always fighting against the monarchy.
The church was always at odds with the nobles.
The peasants and the nobles didn’t have the best relationships.
Everybody Wants To Rule The World
Monarchs were always fighting against other monarchs.
The church was fighting against heresy at the local level.
One way to leverage the profession of being a historian is to work for the government.
Or to work for academia, and provide intellectual support for the government.
Guided History
This way you can cherry pick dates and ideas from history that can support government policy.
This lets you shape the narrative however you like, while at the same time claiming you are basing it from history.
You might even go so far as to say that those who don’t learn from history are bound to repeat it.
Create What You Are Pretending To Avoid
And since you are ostensibly trying to learn from history, you can use history to justify any public policy you want.
Which will essentially guarantee that history will repeat.
Despite pretending that is not what you are trying to do.
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